Category Archives: Probability

Unprecedented yes, but unlikely?

“We live in unprecedented times” is, perhaps, a somewhat overused phrase of the last six months, but yesterday it was apt as the unprecedented happened. In their match against Manchester United, Brighton and Hove Albion hit the woodwork* 5 times in the game. This (one team hitting the woodwork 5 times) has never happened before […]

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Lucky, or unlucky?

Here’s the tree at the junction of South Ealing Road and Little Ealing Lane getting blown over this afternoon. Amazing car cam footage by Joanna Wolman. (Some understandable swearing!) pic.twitter.com/zlFcDFuXWX — Jon Ball (@JonBall) July 5, 2020 Whenever I see a clip like this my first reaction – like those in the car (and sorry […]

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Searching for the Solskjaer bounce

I’ve spent much of the last week helping students with “Hypothesis Testing” as they prepare for their A level exams in the next few months. Fed up of wading through connived examples, and upon stumbling across perhaps the best headline I’ve read in sometime (“Man United regress to the mean after Solskjaer bounce“) I thought […]

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What chance Brexit?

  What chance Brexit? As the deadline date of March 29th looms ever closer, are we any closer to finding out what will happen? On his blog Jon Worth has produced an excellent flow chart where can follow all the possible twists and turns before ending at one of five possible outcomes. In addition to suggesting […]

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An ‘L’ of a chance

If you look at the Premier League table this evening you will see that Liverpool sit proudly atop the football pyramid. No great surprise there, you may think. But then see who tops the Championship tonight: Leeds United. League One? Luton Town, and League Two? Yes, you’ve guessed it, Lincoln City. So all four of […]

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